Global trends 2030 cfa institute enterprising investor. Worlds a publication of the national intelligence council. He was also an adviser to the us national intelligence councils global trends 2030 program, which produced the alternative worlds report in 2014. Of nat or io ct re na f the di l in llige te eo ic n f ce ofdear reader. An influential book published in 2007 on the subject of black swans, written by nassim nicholas taleb, was subtitled the impact of the highly improbable.
What fate for liberal order in a postwestern world. Director of national intelligence has 38 books on goodreads with 79 ratings. Peter groen take the time to look over the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils nic series of reports aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future entitled global trends 2030. Global megatrends for the next 20 years and how they will affect the united states. In 2012, the us national intelligence council published global trends 2030. Alternative worlds global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. Jan 09, 20 in december, the united states national intelligence council nic published its guess. Jan 07, 20 the national intelligence council is a highlevel agency best known for producing national intelligence estimates forecasts predicting future trends and issues of the next fifteen years.
Alternative worlds, provides a thoughtprovoking read for any money manager who even minimally considers a longterm view important in making portfolio allocation decisions. Alternative worlds that identified eight black swans, with a severe pandemic disease outbreak topping the list. Chinas current economic growth rate 8 to 10 per cent will probably be a distant memory by 2030, said the fifth installment of the global trends 2030. National intelligence council the national intelligence council nic is best known as the organization that produces national intelligence estimates, which are intelligence communitywide forecasts of issues and challenges facing the security of the united states. It describes the megatrends, gamechangers, and four potential worlds that we will. National intelligence council s nic report is supposed to help leaders understand how the world is changing. Wri is pleased to invite you to join a discussion of the findings of the national intelligence council nic global trends 2030. Burrows retired from a 28year career in the cia and state department, the last ten being spent at the national intelligence. Alternative worlds national intelligence council on. What will our future world be like in the next fifteen to twenty years.
The national intelligence council nic serves as the us intelligence communitys center for the longterm strategic analysis. This video brief illustrates the eight black swans outlined in the national intelligence councils report, global trends 2030. John maynard keynes, 1937, from global trends 2030. Alternative worlds we looked at the uncertain but potentially worrisome gini out of the bottle scenario, the third scenario presented in the national intelligence councils nic comprehensive analysis. Alternative worlds by national intelligence council 2012, paperback at the best online prices at ebay. By 2030, no countrywhether the us, china, or any other large countrywill be a hegemonic power. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures, writes the chairman of the national intelligence council nic christopher kojm in the councils latest forwardlooking quadrennial report, global trends 2030. Alternative worlds report identifies key metatrends that will shape the future international system, including the. Every four years since 1997, the national intelligence council the. Alternative worlds volume 5 by intelligence council at over 30 bookstores.
Mathew burrows serves as director of the atlantic councils strategic foresight initiative. The national intelligence councils global trends 2030 report predicts that by the year 2030, a majority of the worlds population will be out of poverty. Dec 10, 2012 the national intelligence council s global trends 2030 report predicts that by the year 2030, a majority of the worlds population will be out of poverty. It leads the ics effort to produce national intelligence estimates and other documents.
Like a lot of fellow geopolitics and technology trend spotters, we have maintained a keen interest in the projections the us national intelligence council nic makes public every five years or so. Overview of the national intelligence council report on. In his invitation to comment on this new nic report michael marien suggests respondents evaluate its main features. The report is intended to stimulate strategic thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact. Just how intelligent is the national intelligence council. Megatrends that will undo the world unless we take action palgravemacmillan, 2014 in august 20, mr. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future.
The national intelligence council nic has recently released their comprehensive quadrennial report forecasting global trends that have a major impact on our world, global trends 2030. In addition to individual empowerment and the diffusion of state power, we believe that two other megatrends will shape our world out to 2030. It supports and reports to the director of national intelligence. National intelligence council releases global trends 2030. Alternative worlds, of national intelligence council nic, released today. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. Since 1979, the nic has served a bridge between the intelligence and policy communitiesas well as a facilitator for outreach to outside experts. These extensive reports are produced every election year and are directly delivered to the incoming president between election day and inauguration day.
The national intelligence council predicts a very transhuman. Dec 07, 2014 this report is the intelligence communitys best assessment of critical drivers and global scenarios over the next 15 years. He was also an adviser to the us national intelligence council s global trends 2030 program, which produced the alternative worlds report in 2014. The national intelligence councils nic justreleased global trends 2030. The national intelligence council nic is the center for midterm and longterm strategic thinking within the united states intelligence community ic. This is the fifth installment in the national intelligence council s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligencecouncils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. This report explores how metatrends such as demographic shifts, technological developments, and resource availability may shape the geopolitical landscape in the coming decades. National intelligence council usa global trends 2030. Alternative worlds national intelligence council us on. Director of national intelligences most popular book is intelligence commun. Dec 11, 2012 the national intelligence councils nic justreleased global trends 2030.
This is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. This important report, global trends 2030alternative worlds, released in 2012 by the u. The world in 2030 wont look anything like you think the. In this volume, they expanded their coverage of disruptive technologies, devoting a separate section. Intelligence agencies see a different world in 2030. A critique of global trends 2030 alternative worlds introduction.
This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. Dec 10, 2012 in 2030 india could be the rising economic powerhouse that china is seen to be today. The nic foresees a transformed world, in which no country whether the us, china, or any other large country will be a hegemonic power. This report is the intelligence communitys best assessment of critical drivers and global scenarios over the next 15 years. At the end of 2012, the us national intelligence council nic released global trends 2030. Books by director of national intelligence author of. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. This important report, global trends 2030 alternative worlds, released in 2012 by the u. This year, principal author mathew burrows and his colleagues.
Alternative worlds the national intelligence council has released their fifth installment 10 december 2012 in a series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about potential global. The 140page report released today by the national intelligence council lays. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and. Dec, 2012 of nat or io ct re na f the di l in llige te eo ic n f ce ofdear reader. Sharetweetemailthe national intelligence council is a highlevel agency best known for producing national intelligence estimates forecasts predicting future trends and issues of the next fifteen years. In december, the united states national intelligence council nic published its guess. Apr, 20 this video brief illustrates the eight black swans outlined in the national intelligence council s report, global trends 2030. These are the unanswered questions about pandemics which appear in the box on page. United states national intelligence council us nic. As with the nics national intelligence council previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the futurewhich would be an. Alternative worlds, published in 2012 by the national intelligence council, is one of the sources that parag khanna uses in connectography 2016. Every halfdecade, the national intelligence councils global trends series produces a roughly 20year predictive analysis of the worlds evolution an analysis considered to be the best longrange geopolitical forecasting conducted by the u. Alternative worlds global trends reports volume 5 by national intelligence council english isbn. National intelligence councils nic report is supposed to help leaders understand how the world is changing.
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